March ICE (CCAH0) Cocoa:
The picture is mitigated, both on the daily chart, on the cloud chart and on the weekly continuation chart. Even though CCAH0 broke below the rising trendline, it has not found strong follow-through selling yet.
Instead, support at 3223 held. Our bias is neutral.
· A close below 3250 would signal another attempt to break 3223. Then, a close below 3220 would be bearish.
· On the other hand, holding support at 3250, then closing above 3340 would point to a resumption of the rise, with a new slope.
The Dollar Index is forming a bull flag. If activated, the pattern will signal a rise in the US currency, which will weigh down commodities prices in US Dollars, which includes ICE Cocoa.
March LIFFE (QCH0) Cocoa:
Neutral. QCH0 is trading sideways in the short-term. In the long-term, the weekly continuation chart features an uptrend, but the diverging RSI is a concern for the bulls.