NYMEX Crude oil futures, March 10 (CLAH0):
Today’s bearish price action brought WTI back down below 82.50.
Unless CLAH0 can return back up to close above that level, it is positioned to decline below support at 80. After that, support will be found around 78.50.
Invalidation: a close above 82.50 would signal a rise towards 84.00, then an attempt to challenge the recent high at 84.45.
DOE Estimates (10:30am)
Average Estimates (Pre API) – Crude up 1.20 mil, Distillate down 1.80 mil, Gasoline up 1.20 mil and Utilization up 3% pts to 81.2%. For this week last year, Crude built 1.10 mil, Distillate built 6.30 mil, Gasoline built 2.10 mil and Utilization was up .6% pts to 85.2%.
Crude build expected off higher Crude imports and tepid refinery demand. Crude imports rose last week to 8.355 mil bpd (for this week last year, imports were running over 10 mil bpd). For the past 3 years, Crude Imports have risen from Dec to Jan by the average of 5%. Cushing stocks hit a record last week (35.67 mil). Distillate draw expected off below average temps in the Northeast while seasonal Gasoline build is expected.
YOY – Crude up 1.90 mil, Cushing up 3.50 mil, Gasoline up 8.30 mil, Distillates up 21.2 mil and Utilization down 4.7% pts.
API Data (1/12)
Crude built 1.20 mil (Padd 5 built 860,000), Cushing stocks down 895,000, Distillate built 3.60 mil, Gasoline built 6.80 mil, Crude Imports were up 995,000 to 9.73 mil bpd, Product Imports were down 22,000 bpd to 2.17 mil bpd and Utilization up .3% pts to 79.8%.
MasterCard Survey (1/12)
MasterCard survey showed retail gasoline demand was 2.1% last week and is now up 1.8% yoy. Demand averaged 9.118 mil bpd last week.