Futures Trading Updatefrom Jim Wyckoff

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is higher gold prices that have pushed above $900.00 an ounce.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

By looking at recent price action across the financial and commodity markets spectrum, it appears many traders are now realizing the huge injections of liquidity into the world financial system of the past several months will produce price inflationary pressures. That's the main reason several commodity futures markets, including gold and the grains, have seen price rallies recently. It's also a main reason the U.S. Treasury futures markets have been beaten up recently. Some commodity futures markets have not participated in the recent "inflation trade." However, if forthcoming world economic data does confirm notions that inflation has crept back into the world economic structure, then those commodity futures markets which have not rallied recently likely will.--Jim

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The stock indexes have become a major "outside market" that many other markets are monitoring very closely. Such will continue to be the case for at least the near term.

March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 810.90 and then at the January low of 797.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Friday's high of 835.90 and then at 850.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 840.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:-------------  819.70
1st Support:-------- 803.45
2nd Support:-------- 783.40
1st Resistance:----- 839.75
2nd Resistance:----- 856.00

March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,147.00 and then at the January low of 1,130.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,185.00 and then at 1,200.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,189.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,166.10
1st Support:------ 1,140.20
2nd Support:------ 1,116.10
1st Resistance:--- 1,190.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,216.10

March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 7,900 and then more stops just below support at last week's low of 7,870. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at 8,000 and then just above resistance at 8,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,301

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:

Pivot:------------ 7,983
1st Support:------ 7,860
2nd Support:------ 7,748
1st Resistance:--- 8,095
2nd Resistance:--- 8,218

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker again in early trading today. The bulls have faded amid ideas of bigger supplies of debt being issued by the U.S. government and by worries that China may dump some U.S. Treasury holdings after the U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Geihtner said China was manipulating its currency.

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 129 even and then at last week's low of 128 17/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 130 even and then at Friday's high of 130 14/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 130 1/32

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:

Pivot:----------- 129 17/32
1st Support:----- 128 19/32 2nd Support:----- 127 20/32
1st Resistance:-- 130 16/32
2nd Resistance:-- 131 14/32

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 124.03.5 and then at 124.16.0. Shorter-
term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at last week's low of 123.10.5 and then at 123.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 124.26.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:

Pivot:----------- 124 even
1st Support:----- 123 7/32 2nd Support:----- 122 18/32
1st Resistance:-- 124 21/32
2nd Resistance:-- 125 14/32

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading today, on mild profit-taking pressure. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 86.50 and then at the overnight high of 86.86. Shorter-term support is seen at last week's low of 85.84 and then at 85.49. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 85.54. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

The December Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading, on short covering. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2900 and then at the overnight low of 1.2852. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3000 and then at 1.3074. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3017. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

Gold is higher in early dealings today, on follow-through buying from strong gains Friday, and hit a fresh 3.5-month high overnight above $900.00. For February gold, shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $909.70 and $925.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $900.00 and then at the overnight low of $889.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $869.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $47.50 and then just above resistance at $48.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $45.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $44.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $44.30. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading. Grain traders appear to be focusing on an "inflation trade" at present, after gold prices shot higher last week. Corn and soybean traders are continuing to monitor South American weather, which has now been called the worst drought in Argentina in decades. Recent weekly USDA export sales data has also been bullish for grains.