Futures Trading Updatefrom Jim Wyckoff

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower gold prices, lower crude oil and firmer U.S. Treasuries.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

I am intermediate- to longer-term bullish on most commodity futures markets. However, in the near term I am not bullish. Reason: While I believe inflationary pressures will pick up around mid-year (which is bullish for commodities), I suspect there may be one more significant wave down in commodity prices in the coming weeks, as more dour U.S. economic news produces fresh consumer demand concerns for many commodity markets.--Jim

The U.S. stock indexes are mostly firmer in early morning trading today. Bears do still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The stock indexes have become a major "outside market" that many other markets are monitoring very closely. Such will continue to be the case for at least the near term.

March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Monday's low of 810.90 and then at the January low of 797.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday's high of 849.50 and then at last week's high of 865.70. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 840.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:-------------  830.40
1st Support:-------- 811.30
2nd Support:-------- 791.80
1st Resistance:----- 849.90
2nd Resistance:----- 869.00

March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,160.00 and then at Monday's low of 1,147.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,193.25 and then at Monday's high of 1,202.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,189.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,176.20
1st Support:------ 1,150.35
2nd Support:------ 1,121.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,205.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,231.20

March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 7,975 and then more stops just below support at last week's low of 7,870. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,100 and then just above resistance at Monday's high of 8,175. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,301

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:

Pivot:------------ 8,062
1st Support:------ 7,950
2nd Support:------ 7,862
1st Resistance:--- 8,150
2nd Resistance:--- 8,262

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today, on short covering. I do not look for more strong downside pressure in Treasuries, given the recent steep losses in prices and given the still very bad world economic environment.

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 128 28/32 and then at Monday's low of 128 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Monday's high of 130 even and then at 130 14/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 130 1/32

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:

Pivot:----------- 129 6/32
1st Support:----- 128 12/32 2nd Support:----- 127 20/32
1st Resistance:-- 129 30/32
2nd Resistance:-- 130 24/32

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday's high of 124.03.5 and then at 124.16.0. Shorter-
term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at last week's low of 123.10.5 and then at 123.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 124.26.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:

Pivot:----------- 123 20/32
1st Support:----- 123 5/32 2nd Support:----- 122 22/32
1st Resistance:-- 124 3/32
2nd Resistance:-- 124 18/32

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading today. Bulls are fading and need to show more power soon. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 85.25 and then at 85.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 84.50 and then at the overnight low of 84.25. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 84.15. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

The December Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Bulls are gaining some fresh upside momentum. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3123 and then at 1.3100. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3200 and then at 1.3250. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3017. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Gold is lower in early dealings today, on profit-taking pressure from recent strong gains. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $907.60 and Monday's high of $916.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $892.20 and then at Monday's low of $889.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $872.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $47.50 and then just above resistance at $48.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $44.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $43.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $44.30. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 

Prices were weaker in overnight trading. Key "outside markets" are mixed to bearish today, with crude oil and gold weaker and the U.S. dollar also weaker. Bulls continue to worry about a "February Break" seasonal downturn in prices upcoming. Corn and soybean traders are continuing to monitor South American weather, which has now been called the worst drought in Argentina in decades and is limiting selling interest in corn and soybeans.