Friday, January 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is solidly higher gold prices that hit a fresh four-month high overnight.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Crude oil futures prices remain in a 6.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and again appear headed below $40.00 a barrel. Crude oil prices under $40.00 a barrel would likely put some fresh downside price pressure on most other commodity futures prices.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today. This week's price action will likely once again reaffirm that rallies in the stock indexes provide fresh selling opportunities.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 825.00 and then at this week's low of 810.90. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 848.80 and then at this week's high of 875.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 840.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 851.80
1st Support:-------- 831.05
2nd Support:-------- 819.30
1st Resistance:----- 863.55
2nd Resistance:----- 884.30
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,175.00 and then at this week's low of 1,147.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,212.00 and then at Thursday's high of 1,228.25. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,228.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,209.75
1st Support:------ 1,191.25
2nd Support:------ 1,176.50
1st Resistance:--- 1,254.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,243.00
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,000 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 7,870. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at 8,112 and then just above resistance at 8,200. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,301
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,147
1st Support:------ 8,050
2nd Support:------ 7,987
1st Resistance:--- 8,210
2nd Resistance:--- 8,307
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are steady to weaker in early trading today. Bears have gained fresh downside near-
term technical momentum this week.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126 14/32 and then at 126 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 127 even and then at 127 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 126 17/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 127 23/32
1st Support:----- 126 1/32 2nd Support:----- 125 3/32
1st Resistance:-- 128 21/32
2nd Resistance:-- 130 11/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 123.02.0 and then at 123.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 122.14.5 and then at 122.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 124.11.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 123 5/32
1st Support:----- 122 9/32 2nd Support:----- 121 24/32
1st Resistance:-- 123 22/32
2nd Resistance:-- 124 18/32
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading today. Bulls have regained fresh upside technical momentum late this week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 87.00 and then at the January high of 87.40. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 85.92 and then at 85.50. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.15. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the January low of 1.2755 and then at 1.2700. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2934 and then at 1.3000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2968. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly higher in early dealings today and hit a fresh nearly four-month high overnight. Bulls have quickly regained solid upside technical momentum. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $927.50 and then at the October 2008 high of $938.80. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $902.00 and then at $892.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $880.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $42.15 and then just above resistance at $43.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $40.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $39.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $42.61. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mostly lower in overnight trading. Key "outside markets" are neutral today, with crude oil steady, gold solidly higher and the U.S. dollar also solidly higher. Bulls continue to worry about a "February Break" seasonal downturn in prices upcoming. Corn and soybean traders are continuing to monitor South American weather, which has turned a bit wetter and has helped to pressure prices this week.