Tuesday, February 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are firmer U.S. stock index and crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
During late fall in 2008 I said that it was likely that market lows were in place in the U.S. stock indexes, despite the fact that more dour U.S. economic news was yet to come. Remember that futures traders are front-runners and are always factoring into prices future events. And it's a near certainty that the stock market will bottom out well before all the bad economic news is out. However, it's now my bias that the stock indexes may now establish new lows in 2009--probably during the first half of the year. As the biggest economic slowdown since the Great Depression continues to play out, it's likely that investor fear and uncertainty will increase again at some point soon, and that's bearish for the stock indexes and commodities. This scenario would also very likely be very bullish for U.S. Treasuries.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are near steady in early morning trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in the overnight low of at 816.20 and then at Monday's low of 806.40. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 829.50 and then at Friday's high of 848.80. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 825.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 818.40
1st Support:-------- 809.30
2nd Support:-------- 797.30
1st Resistance:----- 830.40
2nd Resistance:----- 839.50
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,185.50 and then at 1,173.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,200.25 and then at 1,215.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,191.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,182.25
1st Support:------ 1,161.50
2nd Support:------ 1,134.25
1st Resistance:--- 1,209.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,230.25
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 7,810 and then more stops just below support at 7,750. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 7,955 and then just above resistance at 8,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,016
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 7,879
1st Support:------ 7,818
2nd Support:------ 7,749
1st Resistance:--- 7,948
2nd Resistance:--- 8,009
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in early trading today. Last week's low of 126 9/32 in March T-Bonds is a key 50% Fibonacci retracement technical support level.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 128 even and then at 127 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 128 30/32 and then at 129 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 130 22/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 128 5/32
1st Support:----- 127 15/32 2nd Support:----- 125 29/32
1st Resistance:-- 129 21/32
2nd Resistance:-- 130 13/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 123.26.5 and then at 124.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 123.10.5 and then at 123.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 124.11.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 123 14/32
1st Support:----- 123 even 2nd Support:----- 122 6/32
1st Resistance:-- 124 8/32
2nd Resistance:-- 124 22/32
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. Bulls have regained some upside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.66 and then at Monday's high of 86.97. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 86.13 and then at 86.00. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.15. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The December Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.2794 and then at 1.2650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2908 and then at 1.2950. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2968. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is near steady in early dealings today. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $918.20 and then at Monday's high of $929.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $900.00 and then at the overnight low of $896.30. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $910.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $40.87 and then just above resistance at $42.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $39.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $38.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $42.61. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were lower again in overnight trading. Key "outside markets" are neutral today, with crude oil and gold near steady and the U.S. dollar also near steady. Some beneficial rains in Argentina and Brazil the past few days, and more in the forecast, are bearish for corn and soybeans. Bulls continue to worry about a "February Break" seasonal downturn in prices upcoming. The very dour outlook for the U.S. economy is also a bearish underlying factor for the grain futures markets.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are firmer U.S. stock index and crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
During late fall in 2008 I said that it was likely that market lows were in place in the U.S. stock indexes, despite the fact that more dour U.S. economic news was yet to come. Remember that futures traders are front-runners and are always factoring into prices future events. And it's a near certainty that the stock market will bottom out well before all the bad economic news is out. However, it's now my bias that the stock indexes may now establish new lows in 2009--probably during the first half of the year. As the biggest economic slowdown since the Great Depression continues to play out, it's likely that investor fear and uncertainty will increase again at some point soon, and that's bearish for the stock indexes and commodities. This scenario would also very likely be very bullish for U.S. Treasuries.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are near steady in early morning trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in the overnight low of at 816.20 and then at Monday's low of 806.40. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 829.50 and then at Friday's high of 848.80. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 825.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 818.40
1st Support:-------- 809.30
2nd Support:-------- 797.30
1st Resistance:----- 830.40
2nd Resistance:----- 839.50
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,185.50 and then at 1,173.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,200.25 and then at 1,215.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,191.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,182.25
1st Support:------ 1,161.50
2nd Support:------ 1,134.25
1st Resistance:--- 1,209.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,230.25
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 7,810 and then more stops just below support at 7,750. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 7,955 and then just above resistance at 8,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,016
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 7,879
1st Support:------ 7,818
2nd Support:------ 7,749
1st Resistance:--- 7,948
2nd Resistance:--- 8,009
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in early trading today. Last week's low of 126 9/32 in March T-Bonds is a key 50% Fibonacci retracement technical support level.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 128 even and then at 127 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 128 30/32 and then at 129 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 130 22/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 128 5/32
1st Support:----- 127 15/32 2nd Support:----- 125 29/32
1st Resistance:-- 129 21/32
2nd Resistance:-- 130 13/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 123.26.5 and then at 124.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 123.10.5 and then at 123.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 124.11.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 123 14/32
1st Support:----- 123 even 2nd Support:----- 122 6/32
1st Resistance:-- 124 8/32
2nd Resistance:-- 124 22/32
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. Bulls have regained some upside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.66 and then at Monday's high of 86.97. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 86.13 and then at 86.00. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.15. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The December Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.2794 and then at 1.2650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2908 and then at 1.2950. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2968. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is near steady in early dealings today. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $918.20 and then at Monday's high of $929.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $900.00 and then at the overnight low of $896.30. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $910.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $40.87 and then just above resistance at $42.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $39.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $38.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $42.61. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were lower again in overnight trading. Key "outside markets" are neutral today, with crude oil and gold near steady and the U.S. dollar also near steady. Some beneficial rains in Argentina and Brazil the past few days, and more in the forecast, are bearish for corn and soybeans. Bulls continue to worry about a "February Break" seasonal downturn in prices upcoming. The very dour outlook for the U.S. economy is also a bearish underlying factor for the grain futures markets.