Wednesday, February 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a firmer U.S. dollar and firmer crude oil prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
In these tougher economic times, it's prudent for many traders to consider the "mini" futures contracts, of which there are many. From stock indexes to grains to crude oil to metals and softs, most of these mini futures contracts offer good liquidity, yet have lower trading margins due to their smaller size. Check with your individual broker or representative for more details on this growing trend in futures trading.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are near steady in early morning trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Traders are awaiting Friday morning's key U.S. jobs report.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in the overnight low of at 829.20 and then at Tuesday's low of 816.20. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's high of 839.50 and then at 850.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 825.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 829.10
1st Support:-------- 818.60
2nd Support:-------- 805.80
1st Resistance:----- 841.95
2nd Resistance:----- 852.40
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,200.00 and then at Tuesday's low of 1,177.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of 1,218.00 and then at 1,228.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,191.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,200.90
1st Support:------ 1,183.85
2nd Support:------ 1,159.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,224.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,241.90
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 7,950 and then more stops just below support at 7,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,000 and then just above resistance at Tuesday's high of 8,065. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,016
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 7,969
1st Support:------ 7,872
2nd Support:------ 7,759
1st Resistance:--- 8,082
2nd Resistance:--- 8,179
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are near steady in early trading today. Bears have regained some fresh near-term technical momentum. Last week's low of 126 9/32 in March T-
Bonds is a key 50% Fibonacci retracement technical support level.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week's low of 126 9/32 and then at 126 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 127 16/32 and then at 128 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 128 7/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 127 14/32
1st Support:----- 125 31/32 2nd Support:----- 125 5/32
1st Resistance:-- 128 8/32
2nd Resistance:-- 129 23/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 123.00.0 and then at 123.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 122.01.5 and then at 121.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 123.07.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 122 27/32
1st Support:----- 121 29/32 2nd Support:----- 121 12/32
1st Resistance:-- 123 12/32
2nd Resistance:-- 124 10/32
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading today. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-
term technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.28 and then at Tuesday's high of 86.66. Shorter-term support is seen at 86.00 and then at 85.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.15. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
The December Euro is solidly lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2800 and then at 1.2750. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2900 and then at 1.2950. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2968. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is modestly higher in early dealings today. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $900.00 and then at the overnight high of $906.90. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $892.00 and then at $884.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $897.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $41.79 and then just above resistance at $42.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $40.46 and then more sell stops just below support at $40.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $42.61. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on a corrective bounce from Tuesday's losses. Key "outside markets" are neutral again today, with crude oil and the U.S. dollar both firmer. Some beneficial rains in Argentina and Brazil the past few days, and more in the forecast, are bearish for corn and soybeans. Bulls continue to worry about a "February Break" seasonal downturn in prices upcoming. The very dour outlook for the U.S. economy is also a bearish underlying factor for the grain futures markets.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a firmer U.S. dollar and firmer crude oil prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
In these tougher economic times, it's prudent for many traders to consider the "mini" futures contracts, of which there are many. From stock indexes to grains to crude oil to metals and softs, most of these mini futures contracts offer good liquidity, yet have lower trading margins due to their smaller size. Check with your individual broker or representative for more details on this growing trend in futures trading.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are near steady in early morning trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Traders are awaiting Friday morning's key U.S. jobs report.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in the overnight low of at 829.20 and then at Tuesday's low of 816.20. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's high of 839.50 and then at 850.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 825.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 829.10
1st Support:-------- 818.60
2nd Support:-------- 805.80
1st Resistance:----- 841.95
2nd Resistance:----- 852.40
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,200.00 and then at Tuesday's low of 1,177.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of 1,218.00 and then at 1,228.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,191.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,200.90
1st Support:------ 1,183.85
2nd Support:------ 1,159.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,224.85
2nd Resistance:--- 1,241.90
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 7,950 and then more stops just below support at 7,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,000 and then just above resistance at Tuesday's high of 8,065. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,016
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 7,969
1st Support:------ 7,872
2nd Support:------ 7,759
1st Resistance:--- 8,082
2nd Resistance:--- 8,179
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are near steady in early trading today. Bears have regained some fresh near-term technical momentum. Last week's low of 126 9/32 in March T-
Bonds is a key 50% Fibonacci retracement technical support level.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week's low of 126 9/32 and then at 126 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 127 16/32 and then at 128 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 128 7/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 127 14/32
1st Support:----- 125 31/32 2nd Support:----- 125 5/32
1st Resistance:-- 128 8/32
2nd Resistance:-- 129 23/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 123.00.0 and then at 123.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 122.01.5 and then at 121.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 123.07.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 122 27/32
1st Support:----- 121 29/32 2nd Support:----- 121 12/32
1st Resistance:-- 123 12/32
2nd Resistance:-- 124 10/32
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading today. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-
term technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.28 and then at Tuesday's high of 86.66. Shorter-term support is seen at 86.00 and then at 85.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.15. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
The December Euro is solidly lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2800 and then at 1.2750. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2900 and then at 1.2950. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2968. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is modestly higher in early dealings today. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $900.00 and then at the overnight high of $906.90. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $892.00 and then at $884.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $897.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $41.79 and then just above resistance at $42.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $40.46 and then more sell stops just below support at $40.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $42.61. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on a corrective bounce from Tuesday's losses. Key "outside markets" are neutral again today, with crude oil and the U.S. dollar both firmer. Some beneficial rains in Argentina and Brazil the past few days, and more in the forecast, are bearish for corn and soybeans. Bulls continue to worry about a "February Break" seasonal downturn in prices upcoming. The very dour outlook for the U.S. economy is also a bearish underlying factor for the grain futures markets.