Friday, February 6--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no standout market features in overnight/early morning trading today as traders await the U.S. employment report. Look for a more active trading day in the stock and financial markets, and possibly other markets, in the wake of the jobs report.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Thursday's price action saw many commodity markets rebound from selling pressure seen earlier in the week. This was mostly short covering and due to a rebound in the U.S. stock market ahead of today's key U.S. jobs report. If the U.S. stock market reacts negatively to today's jobs data, then look for those markets that displayed a corrective bounce on Thursday to be under selling pressure today. However, if those markets that saw a solid corrective bounce on Thursday produce follow-through gains and a bullish weekly high close today, then that would be a near-
term bullish technical clue for those markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as the indexes have been trading in a sideways range at lower price levels for weeks. Traders are awaiting this morning's key U.S. jobs report.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 837.00 and then at 825.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Thursday's high of 848.50 and then at 860.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 825.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 835.35
1st Support:-------- 822.20
2nd Support:-------- 803.85
1st Resistance:----- 853.70
2nd Resistance:----- 866.85
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical support is located at 1,225.00 and then at 1,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday's high of 1,249.00 and then at 1,265.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,231.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,223.20
1st Support:------ 1,197.35
2nd Support:------ 1,197.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,260.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,286.20
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 7,950 and then more stops just below support at 7,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 8065 and then just above resistance at 8,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,016
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 7,953
1st Support:------ 7,841
2nd Support:------ 7,688
1st Resistance:--- 8,106
2nd Resistance:--- 8,218
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are steady to firmer in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126 19/32 and then at 126 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 127 8/32 and then at 127 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 127 31/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 126 31/32
1st Support:----- 126 5/32 2nd Support:----- 125 17/32
1st Resistance:-- 127 19/32
2nd Resistance:-- 128 13/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 122.18.5 and then at 123.00.0. Shorter-
term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 122.07.0 and then at 122.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 123.07.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 122 10/32
1st Support:----- 121 28/32 2nd Support:----- 121 14/32
1st Resistance:-- 122 24/32
2nd Resistance:-- 123 6/32
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.54 and then at 86.66. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 86.24 and then at 86.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.15. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The December Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.2738 and then at 1.2700. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2832 and then at 1.2900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2968. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is firmer in early dealings today. Bulls still have good upside technical momentum. For April gold, shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $918.10 and then at Thursday's high of $926.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $907.50 and then at $900.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $897.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $41.07 and then just above resistance at $42.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week's low of $39.46 and then more sell stops just below support at $39.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $42.61. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on short covering. Key "outside markets" are neutral today, with crude oil weaker and the U.S. dollar firmer. The stock indexes are slightly higher. Solidly higher closes in the grains today would give the bulls some fresh upside near-term technical momentum.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no standout market features in overnight/early morning trading today as traders await the U.S. employment report. Look for a more active trading day in the stock and financial markets, and possibly other markets, in the wake of the jobs report.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Thursday's price action saw many commodity markets rebound from selling pressure seen earlier in the week. This was mostly short covering and due to a rebound in the U.S. stock market ahead of today's key U.S. jobs report. If the U.S. stock market reacts negatively to today's jobs data, then look for those markets that displayed a corrective bounce on Thursday to be under selling pressure today. However, if those markets that saw a solid corrective bounce on Thursday produce follow-through gains and a bullish weekly high close today, then that would be a near-
term bullish technical clue for those markets.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as the indexes have been trading in a sideways range at lower price levels for weeks. Traders are awaiting this morning's key U.S. jobs report.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 837.00 and then at 825.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Thursday's high of 848.50 and then at 860.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 825.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 835.35
1st Support:-------- 822.20
2nd Support:-------- 803.85
1st Resistance:----- 853.70
2nd Resistance:----- 866.85
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical support is located at 1,225.00 and then at 1,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday's high of 1,249.00 and then at 1,265.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,231.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,223.20
1st Support:------ 1,197.35
2nd Support:------ 1,197.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,260.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,286.20
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 7,950 and then more stops just below support at 7,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday's high of 8065 and then just above resistance at 8,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,016
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 7,953
1st Support:------ 7,841
2nd Support:------ 7,688
1st Resistance:--- 8,106
2nd Resistance:--- 8,218
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are steady to firmer in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126 19/32 and then at 126 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 127 8/32 and then at 127 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 127 31/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 126 31/32
1st Support:----- 126 5/32 2nd Support:----- 125 17/32
1st Resistance:-- 127 19/32
2nd Resistance:-- 128 13/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 122.18.5 and then at 123.00.0. Shorter-
term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 122.07.0 and then at 122.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 123.07.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 122 10/32
1st Support:----- 121 28/32 2nd Support:----- 121 14/32
1st Resistance:-- 122 24/32
2nd Resistance:-- 123 6/32
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.54 and then at 86.66. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 86.24 and then at 86.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.15. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The December Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.2738 and then at 1.2700. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2832 and then at 1.2900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2968. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is firmer in early dealings today. Bulls still have good upside technical momentum. For April gold, shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $918.10 and then at Thursday's high of $926.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $907.50 and then at $900.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $897.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $41.07 and then just above resistance at $42.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week's low of $39.46 and then more sell stops just below support at $39.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $42.61. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on short covering. Key "outside markets" are neutral today, with crude oil weaker and the U.S. dollar firmer. The stock indexes are slightly higher. Solidly higher closes in the grains today would give the bulls some fresh upside near-term technical momentum.