Monday, February 9--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is weaker U.S. stock indexes, a weaker U.S. dollar and weaker gold prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
This will be an extra important week for the markets, as traders appear poised to receive the details of the U.S. government's overall economic rescue package. The markets rallied a bit on Friday on expectations for the package. However, it would not surprise me to see a "sell the fact" reaction by the stock indexes to official details of the stimulus package. My bias is now that the U.S. stock indexes are headed sideways to lower in the coming weeks, or few months.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as the indexes have been trading in a sideways range at lower price levels for weeks.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 852.90 and then at Friday's low of 837.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Friday's high of 869.00 and then at 875.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 869.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 857.90
1st Support:-------- 846.80
2nd Support:-------- 825.90
1st Resistance:----- 878.80
2nd Resistance:----- 889.90
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,259.00 and then at 1,243.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Friday's high of 1,280.00 and then at 1,300.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,231.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,248.70
1st Support:------ 1,217.35
2nd Support:------ 1,158.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,307.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,338.40
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,150 and then more stops just below support at 8,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,250 and then just above resistance at Friday's high of 8,275. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,268
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,185
1st Support:------ 8,094
2nd Support:------ 7,935
1st Resistance:--- 8,344
2nd Resistance:--- 8,435
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in early trading today, amid worries about huge sales of U.S. government debt to finance the economic bailout package. Prices hit a fresh 2.5-month low overnight. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 125 14/32 and then at 125 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 126 1/32 and then at 126 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 127 31/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 126 8/32
1st Support:----- 125 3/32 2nd Support:----- 124 12/32
1st Resistance:-- 126 31/32
2nd Resistance:-- 128 4/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 122.01.0 and then at 122.18.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 121.19.0 and then at 121.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 123.07.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 121 31/32
1st Support:----- 121 13/32 2nd Support:----- 120 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 122 13/32
2nd Resistance:-- 122 31/32
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Bulls are fading a bit. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 85.50 and then at the overnight high of 85.90. Shorter-term support is seen at 85.00 and then at 84.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 85.30. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The December Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2950 and then at 1.2900. Shorter-
term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3025 and then at 1.3100. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2968. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today, on profit-taking pressure from recent gains. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $913.40 and then at Friday's high of $921.90. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $898.30 and then at $890.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $897.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $41.00 and then just above resistance at $42.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $39.58 and then more sell stops just below support at $39.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $42.61. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on short covering and some bargain-hunting buying. Key "outside markets" are neutral today, with crude oil firmer and the U.S. dollar weaker. The stock indexes are also weaker. The corn and bean bulls some fresh upside near-term technical momentum after bullish weekly high closes on Friday, and amid bullish weather outlooks for dry Argentine growing regions. Wheat bears still have the near-term technical advantage, but selling interest will be limited by higher corn and soybean futures.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is weaker U.S. stock indexes, a weaker U.S. dollar and weaker gold prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
This will be an extra important week for the markets, as traders appear poised to receive the details of the U.S. government's overall economic rescue package. The markets rallied a bit on Friday on expectations for the package. However, it would not surprise me to see a "sell the fact" reaction by the stock indexes to official details of the stimulus package. My bias is now that the U.S. stock indexes are headed sideways to lower in the coming weeks, or few months.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as the indexes have been trading in a sideways range at lower price levels for weeks.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 852.90 and then at Friday's low of 837.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Friday's high of 869.00 and then at 875.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 869.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 857.90
1st Support:-------- 846.80
2nd Support:-------- 825.90
1st Resistance:----- 878.80
2nd Resistance:----- 889.90
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,259.00 and then at 1,243.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Friday's high of 1,280.00 and then at 1,300.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,231.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,248.70
1st Support:------ 1,217.35
2nd Support:------ 1,158.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,307.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,338.40
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,150 and then more stops just below support at 8,000. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,250 and then just above resistance at Friday's high of 8,275. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,268
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 8,185
1st Support:------ 8,094
2nd Support:------ 7,935
1st Resistance:--- 8,344
2nd Resistance:--- 8,435
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in early trading today, amid worries about huge sales of U.S. government debt to finance the economic bailout package. Prices hit a fresh 2.5-month low overnight. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 125 14/32 and then at 125 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 126 1/32 and then at 126 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 127 31/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 126 8/32
1st Support:----- 125 3/32 2nd Support:----- 124 12/32
1st Resistance:-- 126 31/32
2nd Resistance:-- 128 4/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 122.01.0 and then at 122.18.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 121.19.0 and then at 121.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 123.07.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 121 31/32
1st Support:----- 121 13/32 2nd Support:----- 120 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 122 13/32
2nd Resistance:-- 122 31/32
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Bulls are fading a bit. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 85.50 and then at the overnight high of 85.90. Shorter-term support is seen at 85.00 and then at 84.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 85.30. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The December Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2950 and then at 1.2900. Shorter-
term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3025 and then at 1.3100. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2968. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today, on profit-taking pressure from recent gains. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $913.40 and then at Friday's high of $921.90. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $898.30 and then at $890.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $897.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $41.00 and then just above resistance at $42.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $39.58 and then more sell stops just below support at $39.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $42.61. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on short covering and some bargain-hunting buying. Key "outside markets" are neutral today, with crude oil firmer and the U.S. dollar weaker. The stock indexes are also weaker. The corn and bean bulls some fresh upside near-term technical momentum after bullish weekly high closes on Friday, and amid bullish weather outlooks for dry Argentine growing regions. Wheat bears still have the near-term technical advantage, but selling interest will be limited by higher corn and soybean futures.