Friday, February 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower U.S. stock index prices and lower crude oil prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I sense that today could be a day that favors the bears in most markets--except gold and U.S. Treasuries. We are heading into a weekend with high anxiety among most investors and traders. Many are wondering when "the next shoe will drop" in the financial markets. Heightened uncertainty generally favors the bears in most markets.--
Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading today, and have hit multi-month lows. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have gained more downside momentum late this week.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 750.00 and then at the contract low of 737.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 779.60 and then at 800.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 3.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 805.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 783.65
1st Support:-------- 770.80
2nd Support:-------- 762.15
1st Resistance:----- 792.30
2nd Resistance:----- 805.15
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,150.00 and then at the January low of 1,130.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,171.00 and then at 1,185.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,206.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,178.85
1st Support:------ 1,155.70
2nd Support:------ 1,140.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,193.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,216.85
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 7,250 and then more stops just below support at the November low of 7,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 7,400 and then just above resistance at 7,462. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 7,748
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 7,496
1st Support:------ 7,396
2nd Support:------ 7,330
1st Resistance:--- 7,562
2nd Resistance:--- 7,662
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are higher in early trading today, as it looks like the stock market will have a solid down day today. Trading has become very choppy in the Treasuries.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126 11/32 and then at 126 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 127 17/32 and then at 128 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 127 even
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 126 31/32
1st Support:----- 125 14/32 2nd Support:----- 124 17/32
1st Resistance:-- 127 28/32
2nd Resistance:-- 129 13/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 123.07.0 and then at 123.16.0. Shorter-
term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 122.18.0 and then at this week's low of 122.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 123.06.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 122 25/32
1st Support:----- 121 30/32 2nd Support:----- 121 13/32
1st Resistance:-- 123 10/32
2nd Resistance:-- 124 05/32
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 88.35 and then at this week's high of 88.57. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 87.84 and then at 87.50. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 87.58. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.2560 and then at 1.2500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2684 and then at 1.2757. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2727. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly higher in early dealings today. Prices hit a fresh seven-month high overnight and are moving in on major psychological resistance at $1,000.00 an ounce. Bulls have solid upside technical momentum. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,000.00 and then at the contract high of $1,005.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $988.00 and then at $975.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $972.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $38.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $39.09. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $37.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $36.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $35.38. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. Grain traders will continue to focus on the outside markets, which are in a bearish posture today. Rains in Brazil and Argentina recently are bearish for corn and beans. Traders will closely examine this morning's weekly USDA export sales report. The path of least resistance in the grains at present appears to be sideways to lower amid the severe economic recession worldwide.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower U.S. stock index prices and lower crude oil prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I sense that today could be a day that favors the bears in most markets--except gold and U.S. Treasuries. We are heading into a weekend with high anxiety among most investors and traders. Many are wondering when "the next shoe will drop" in the financial markets. Heightened uncertainty generally favors the bears in most markets.--
Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading today, and have hit multi-month lows. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have gained more downside momentum late this week.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 750.00 and then at the contract low of 737.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 779.60 and then at 800.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 3.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 805.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 783.65
1st Support:-------- 770.80
2nd Support:-------- 762.15
1st Resistance:----- 792.30
2nd Resistance:----- 805.15
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,150.00 and then at the January low of 1,130.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,171.00 and then at 1,185.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,206.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,178.85
1st Support:------ 1,155.70
2nd Support:------ 1,140.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,193.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,216.85
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 7,250 and then more stops just below support at the November low of 7,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 7,400 and then just above resistance at 7,462. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 7,748
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 7,496
1st Support:------ 7,396
2nd Support:------ 7,330
1st Resistance:--- 7,562
2nd Resistance:--- 7,662
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are higher in early trading today, as it looks like the stock market will have a solid down day today. Trading has become very choppy in the Treasuries.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126 11/32 and then at 126 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 127 17/32 and then at 128 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 127 even
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 126 31/32
1st Support:----- 125 14/32 2nd Support:----- 124 17/32
1st Resistance:-- 127 28/32
2nd Resistance:-- 129 13/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 123.07.0 and then at 123.16.0. Shorter-
term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 122.18.0 and then at this week's low of 122.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 123.06.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 122 25/32
1st Support:----- 121 30/32 2nd Support:----- 121 13/32
1st Resistance:-- 123 10/32
2nd Resistance:-- 124 05/32
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 88.35 and then at this week's high of 88.57. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 87.84 and then at 87.50. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 87.58. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.2560 and then at 1.2500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2684 and then at 1.2757. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2727. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is solidly higher in early dealings today. Prices hit a fresh seven-month high overnight and are moving in on major psychological resistance at $1,000.00 an ounce. Bulls have solid upside technical momentum. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,000.00 and then at the contract high of $1,005.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $988.00 and then at $975.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $972.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $38.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $39.09. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $37.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $36.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $35.38. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. Grain traders will continue to focus on the outside markets, which are in a bearish posture today. Rains in Brazil and Argentina recently are bearish for corn and beans. Traders will closely examine this morning's weekly USDA export sales report. The path of least resistance in the grains at present appears to be sideways to lower amid the severe economic recession worldwide.
All known news and events may have already been factored into the price of the market