Monday, February 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are firmer U.S. stock index prices and lower gold prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Gold is seeing profit-taking pressure early today, from recent strong gains to multi-month highs and above key psychological resistance at $1,000 an ounce. However, remember that it's right around present price levels that have put in market tops in the gold market in past bull market moves.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today, on short covering after hitting multi-month lows late last week. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 763.10 and then at last week's low of 752.70. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 786.00 and then at 800.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 805.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 766.90
1st Support:-------- 755.30
2nd Support:-------- 741.10
1st Resistance:----- 781.10
2nd Resistance:----- 792.70
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,169.25 and then at last week's low of 1,150.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,195.00 and then at 1,200.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,206.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,168.60
1st Support:------ 1,153.20
2nd Support:------ 1,134.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,187.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,202.60
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 7,300 and then more stops just below support at 7,250. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 7,400 and then just above resistance at Friday's high of 7,460. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 7,748
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 7,348
1st Support:------ 7,235
2nd Support:------ 7,119
1st Resistance:--- 7,464
2nd Resistance:--- 7,577
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in early trading today. Trading has become very choppy in the Treasuries as bulls and bears struggle for near-term control.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126 12/32 and then at 126 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 127 23/32 and then at 128 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 127 even
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 127 22/32
1st Support:----- 126 9/32 2nd Support:----- 124 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 129 even
2nd Resistance:-- 130 13/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 123.13.0 and then at 124.00.0. Shorter-
term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 122.19.0 and then at last week's low of 122.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 123.00.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 123 11/32
1st Support:----- 122 17/32 2nd Support:----- 121 24/32
1st Resistance:-- 124 4/32
2nd Resistance:-- 124 30/32
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 87.00 and then at 87.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 86.50 and then at 86.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.15. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2750 and then at 1.2700. Shorter-
term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2850 and then at 1.2900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2727. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today, on profit taking. Prices hit a fresh seven-month high Friday. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $997.60 and then at $1,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $982.20 and then at $975.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $970.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $41.00 and then just above resistance at $42.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $40.00 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $39.53. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $41.20. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading, on a short covering bounce from last week's losses. Grain traders will continue to focus on the outside markets, which are in a mostly bullish posture today--higher crude oil and higher U.S. stock indexes. The path of least resistance in the grains at present still appears to be sideways to lower in the grains, amid the severe economic recession worldwide.
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are firmer U.S. stock index prices and lower gold prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Gold is seeing profit-taking pressure early today, from recent strong gains to multi-month highs and above key psychological resistance at $1,000 an ounce. However, remember that it's right around present price levels that have put in market tops in the gold market in past bull market moves.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today, on short covering after hitting multi-month lows late last week. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
March S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 763.10 and then at last week's low of 752.70. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 786.00 and then at 800.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 805.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 766.90
1st Support:-------- 755.30
2nd Support:-------- 741.10
1st Resistance:----- 781.10
2nd Resistance:----- 792.70
March Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,169.25 and then at last week's low of 1,150.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,195.00 and then at 1,200.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,206.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,168.60
1st Support:------ 1,153.20
2nd Support:------ 1,134.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,187.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,202.60
March Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 7,300 and then more stops just below support at 7,250. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 7,400 and then just above resistance at Friday's high of 7,460. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 7,748
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH DOW:
Pivot:------------ 7,348
1st Support:------ 7,235
2nd Support:------ 7,119
1st Resistance:--- 7,464
2nd Resistance:--- 7,577
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in early trading today. Trading has become very choppy in the Treasuries as bulls and bears struggle for near-term control.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126 12/32 and then at 126 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 127 23/32 and then at 128 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 127 even
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 127 22/32
1st Support:----- 126 9/32 2nd Support:----- 124 31/32
1st Resistance:-- 129 even
2nd Resistance:-- 130 13/32
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 123.13.0 and then at 124.00.0. Shorter-
term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 122.19.0 and then at last week's low of 122.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 123.00.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR MARCH U.S. T-NOTES:
Pivot:----------- 123 11/32
1st Support:----- 122 17/32 2nd Support:----- 121 24/32
1st Resistance:-- 124 4/32
2nd Resistance:-- 124 30/32
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 87.00 and then at 87.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 86.50 and then at 86.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.15. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2750 and then at 1.2700. Shorter-
term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2850 and then at 1.2900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2727. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today, on profit taking. Prices hit a fresh seven-month high Friday. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $997.60 and then at $1,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $982.20 and then at $975.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $970.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $41.00 and then just above resistance at $42.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $40.00 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $39.53. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $41.20. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading, on a short covering bounce from last week's losses. Grain traders will continue to focus on the outside markets, which are in a mostly bullish posture today--higher crude oil and higher U.S. stock indexes. The path of least resistance in the grains at present still appears to be sideways to lower in the grains, amid the severe economic recession worldwide.
All known news may have already been factored into the price of the market