According to its August Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA now expects a near- to below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, as the calming effects of El Nino continue to develop.
The season, which began June 1, is entering its historical peak period of August through October, when most storms form... NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now predicts a 50% probability of a near-normal season, a 40% probability of a below-normal season, and a 10% probability of an above-normal season.
Forecasters say there is a 70% chance of 7 to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes, including one to two major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5). The main change from the May outlook is an increased probability of a below-normal season, and an expectation of fewer named storms and hurricanes.
The May outlook called for nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes. During an average season, there are 11 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph, of which six become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater and two of those become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.
In recent weeks, forecasts for the return of El Nino -- warmer than normal waters along the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean -- have come to fruition
Provided by NOAA